What an MLB lockout would mean for Arizona restaurants

For restaurants in Glendale, Surprise, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa and Peoria, March is not just another month. It is the month the ballparks fill, hotels run full and kitchens stay busy from lunch to last call. In 2026 the Cactus League drew big crowds, and then local news started asking a worrying question: what if the games do not come back? The current baseball labor agreement expires after the 2026 season, and a work stoppage could affect future springs. Here is why restaurants should care and what an owner can do now, whatever happens at the bargaining table.

How big was the 2026 Cactus League?

A study from Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business described the 2026 season as a very large economic event for the state, with well over a million fans attending games across the ballparks. Researchers surveyed out-of-state visitors in person. Your own March sales are the measure that matters most.

How much did visitors spend?

Out-of-state visitors spent heavily on lodging, food and drink, retail, in-state transport and local entertainment, and most of them said spring training was their main reason for visiting Arizona. A typical party attended several games and stayed several nights, so the spending was spread over days, not one meal.

What is the lockout risk?

The study's authors and local business owners warned that the record may not last, because the current collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and its players expires after the 2026 season. If the two sides do not reach a new deal, owners could lock out players, and spring training could be delayed or canceled. Restaurants in the West Valley fill every spring because of baseball, and they worry about what happens if the games do not return. Nobody can say how talks will end, so a prudent owner plans for it.

Which restaurants are most exposed?

Those near ballparks and the hotels around them, with big March sales and a menu built for game crowds. Sports bars, breakfast restaurants, family restaurants and patio kitchens in the Cactus League cities. A restaurant that earns a large share of its annual profit in six weeks is more exposed than one with steady local business. Look at your own sales for March in the last three years to see your dependence.

What can an owner do now?

• Calculate how much of your yearly profit comes from February and March.
• Build a cash reserve from this year's strong season.
• Review leases, loans and supplier terms for flexibility.
• Avoid adding fixed costs that only a full spring could cover.
• Plan staffing so you can scale up or down with short notice.
• Develop a plan B menu and promotions for local guests in March.
• Talk to your chamber or tourism office about collective marketing.

How do you keep the local base strong?

If visitors might not come, locals matter more. Run a spring offer for neighbors, tell your list your hours and consider catering for offices and events. Keep your online listings accurate. Partner with schools, leagues and clubs. A local base turns a lost month into a slower one, not an empty one.

What should you tell your team?

Be honest about the uncertainty. Share your plan: how you will schedule, what you will do with hours and how you will communicate. Cross-train people, and ask for ideas. Keep your best people with clear, regular conversation.

Where can you follow news on the talks?

Follow the Cactus League Association, your local tourism office, your trade association and the major news outlets. Set a reminder in December and again in January to review your plan. If talks resolve, you can switch back to the full-season plan quickly.

How should you set a reserve target?

A simple target is to hold enough cash to cover your fixed costs for the weeks when spring revenue would normally arrive. Ask your accountant to model February and March at half of normal sales and at zero, and see which costs you could cut and how fast. Talk to your landlord and lender before you need to, not after. A plan that you never use costs little, and one that you need and do not have costs a great deal.

Are you worried about the quiet weeks you cannot control?

Some risks are out of your hands, and the surest cushion is a base of guests who know your food. Mosey is a food-first app where diners find places by dish, mood and neighborhood and rate what they actually ate. A restaurant can host a menu page, show its best-rated dishes and reply to guests, so people in your own neighborhood can find the dish worth a trip. Nobody can pay to outrank you there, because Mosey Gold is earned from ratings alone.

More guides for your business:

• Arizona minimum wage, tip credit and sick time for restaurants in 2026
• What Arizona's 2026 minimum wage means for cafes
• Arizona restaurant seasons: snowbirds, spring training and the summer slump

More in the US guides for food businesses.